Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 914.235630 1043.414534 1191.166955 1374.184079 1596.912277 1861.944455 2.205403e+03
2024-10-20 715.358358 871.599556 1067.291866 1335.629655 1702.609103 2200.479790 2.952324e+03
2024-10-27 610.113427 769.817291 979.998620 1285.309684 1732.747511 2391.473719 3.492447e+03
2024-11-03 563.140508 734.598355 971.294297 1335.376668 1908.165680 2828.292101 4.551875e+03
2024-11-10 521.835636 698.954657 953.046318 1362.784691 2047.481086 3235.480895 5.710019e+03
2024-11-17 484.197762 663.096455 928.246271 1373.673969 2159.041118 3621.875746 6.998194e+03
2024-11-24 446.390083 622.265148 889.879574 1354.810084 2212.362390 3910.837448 8.213325e+03
2024-12-01 424.321369 602.622268 881.583892 1384.070828 2357.993158 4425.980568 1.027694e+04
2024-12-08 409.633681 592.642011 887.074531 1437.368407 2560.639191 5131.893309 1.338489e+04
2024-12-15 391.627208 575.454487 878.259426 1462.416847 2710.252165 5768.056017 1.684672e+04
2024-12-22 370.509279 551.249732 854.695244 1455.477750 2788.454270 6251.839760 2.025631e+04
2024-12-29 357.434723 539.246971 851.095126 1487.025534 2961.465064 7069.817066 2.615699e+04
2025-01-05 333.097931 507.123231 809.845305 1439.417335 2943.224369 7342.004875 2.997334e+04
2025-01-12 312.396036 479.916669 775.438349 1402.303232 2945.786599 7695.219179 3.501880e+04
2025-01-19 291.561910 450.973823 735.197154 1347.275881 2890.176831 7831.683904 3.901533e+04
2025-01-26 285.832670 448.222002 744.052480 1401.132642 3140.411482 9208.922566 5.655321e+04
2025-02-02 277.596989 440.299824 742.083207 1430.180753 3330.204747 10489.203762 7.935857e+04
2025-02-09 268.113822 429.409038 733.227268 1441.867225 3472.945522 11681.291972 1.090950e+05
2025-02-16 256.159594 413.174605 712.281715 1421.717369 3512.656839 12431.623217 1.386921e+05
2025-02-23 250.044377 407.439685 712.198894 1452.945929 3728.540705 14271.109919 2.156751e+05
2025-03-02 246.551183 406.393470 721.671998 1509.845902 4051.745862 17079.740708 3.993908e+05
2025-03-09 240.586253 400.186314 719.657459 1536.606694 4278.658636 19603.367004 7.200509e+05
2025-03-16 232.232491 388.823739 705.619356 1529.192071 4376.322224 21378.273158 1.186233e+06